The new government must soon make clear its position on whether diesel van production will be banned by the end of the decade, says FleetCheck, otherwise fleets will be left in an “impossible” situation.
The Labour election manifesto pledged to reinstate the internal combustion engine (ICE) ban for cars to 2030, which it has recommitted in recent days, but has yet to clarify whether the move will also apply to vans.
Peter Golding, managing director at the fleet software specialist, said: “While electric car adoption by fleets has generally been a considerable success and the 2030 phase-out is absolutely viable, almost the opposite is true of electric vans.
“Compromises over range, payload and charging times mean that fleet sales of new electric vans are struggling to rise above 5% and there appears to be limited prospects of this changing dramatically unless that is some kind of unforeseen paradigm shift.”
Golding added that fleet experiences had shown that electric van use for anything other than local, light duty work was questionable and any change to the diesel van ban could leave fleets in an “impossible” situation.
“Fleets are looking at the ZEV mandate – which will see electric van production rise from 10% of sales this year to 70% by 2030 – alongside the potential 2030 production ban, and they just can’t foresee how the situation is going to be resolved.
“This is not a scenario where fleets are against zero-emissions vehicles – almost all want to play their part in creating cleaner air and minimising the impact of climate change – but they believe that the electric vans on offer currently are simply not fit for their needs.
“For many fleets, 2030 is less than one typical van replacement cycle away, and the lack of certainty is leaving them in an almost impossible situation.”
Golding said there was a credible argument that the 2030 ICE ban on vans was essentially symbolic anyway, given the planned impact of the ZEV mandate on diesel van availability.
“However, almost no-one I speak to in the fleet sector seems to think that the van ZEV mandate can be maintained. You cannot force companies to buy vehicles they don’t want. Certainly, we speak to more fleets that are planning to continue to operate diesel vans in perpetuity than those who see electrification from 2030 as a viable option.”
FleetCheck suggested three potential solutions to move the dial substantially: taxation changes to give an undeniable incentive for van electrification in the same manner as Benefit-in-kind Kaxation has done for electric cars; a massive improvement in electric van technology; or dramatically lower electric van pricing.
“The fact is that none of these developments are likely to happen, at least by 2030. There are not really any carrots that the Government or manufacturers can offer that look likely to change the mind of fleets who are dead set against electrification on practical grounds.”
One other option would be for the Government to effectively “tax diesel vans out of existence” but Golding said that given the level of resistance from businesses, the VED rate imposed would have to be very high rather than simply tweaked.
“The question is whether the Government would want to pursue what is likely to be a deeply unpopular policy.”
Golding said the best option at this point in time would be for fleets and operators to use the consultation to give their opinion on how the eLCV role can practically be increased over time, and what shape official policy should take.
“At the moment, it does look very much as though government policy is diametrically opposed to practical fleet considerations and, at some point, something will have to give.”
